Demand for electric power to outstrip demand for primary energy for next 20 years

The global demand for electric power will be increasing 2.1% per year until 2040, twice exceeding the demand for primary energy, the International Energy Agency said in its annual report, World Energy Outlook. The share of electric power in the final energy consumption will grow from 19% in 2018 to 24% in 2040. But this is only one, natural scenario of the agency based on the existent world policy.

The sustainable development scenario of the agency suggests that electric power will be playing an even bigger role and amount to 31% of the final energy consumption. The share of electric power in the final energy consumption, which currently amounts to less than half of oil consumption, will surpass the share of oil by 2040.

The demand for electric power will be developing by two regional vectors. The growth in developed economies will be deriving from increasing digitalization and electrification and will be compensated with higher energy efficiency to a significant extent. Meanwhile, the demand in emerging markets will grow because of bigger incomes, industrial production and service sector.

The need for flexibility of energy systems will be growing faster than the need for electric power itself. Power plants and grids will remain the foundation of flexibility of energy systems, while battery capacity will grow 40 times by 2040.

According to the natural scenario, solar energy will be the biggest power source, surpassing coal and gas, by 2035. The commissioning of coal-fueled facilities with the rated capacity of 710 GW, mostly in Asia, will hardly compensate for the shutdown of old coal power plants, primarily in developed economies. Renewable energy resources will amount to two-thirds of all new generating facilities of the world by 2040. Wind farm capacities will triple, above all with coastal facilities in Europe, China, and the United States.